Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine the settlement outcome. This market resolves based on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground at the official station (KATL), with settlement in USDC once the day concludes and readings are finalised. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about range placement or awaiting clarity on seasonal norms before committing capital.

Atlanta's May temperatures typically peak between 82–92°F, with historical highs occasionally reaching into the mid-90s during heat waves. The National Weather Service records show May 25 has seen highs ranging from 74°F to 94°F across recent decades, establishing a broad baseline. Comparable late-May days in the region rarely exceed 95°F absent exceptional atmospheric conditions, which frames the upper-range outcomes as lower-probability events requiring specific weather drivers.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Atlanta office forecasts released in the week preceding 25 May, particularly any heat advisories or ridge-building patterns that could push temperatures into anomalous territory. Longer-range climate models from NOAA become more reliable five to seven days out; early-May pattern forecasts will signal whether subtropical high pressure systems are positioned to amplify heating. Any significant deviation from typical spring conditions—drought stress, upper-level blocking, or tropical moisture advection—would shift the distribution meaningfully. Current funding rates on crypto markets show no material correlation to weather-driven volatility, so this contract trades on meteorological fundamentals alone.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.