Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Atlanta’s maximum temperature for 22 May is settled from the Weather Underground reading at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, with the market window ending at 12:00 UTC and the day’s final high only becoming certain once the station data is finalised. With the crowd currently pricing 0% for a Yes outcome, the market is effectively treating the event as already outside the relevant range or as too unlikely to revisit.

Late-May Atlanta highs are usually clustered in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit. AccuWeather’s May outlook points to daily highs broadly between 77°F and 87°F, while WeatherSpark puts the typical May high near 83°F and notes that 90°F is uncommon. That means the settled band is usually driven by small forecast changes around a fairly tight base rate, not by extreme weather. For comparison, National Weather Service discussion for the date cited highs around 83–85°F, which would sit well below the upper buckets and, if reflected in the final airport observation, would leave only the lower outcomes viable.

The main things to watch are any last-minute forecast adjustments from the National Weather Service, changes in cloud cover or afternoon convection, and whether the airport station records a brief spike close to midday before the formal cut-off. Because the contract resolves in USDC on-chain, the key market variable is the final Weather Underground print rather than broader metro conditions or evening temperatures. For a crypto trader, the relevant cross-check is whether any wider risk-off move in BTC or ETH is shifting prediction-market liquidity, but the contract itself depends on the local meteorological observation, not exchange prices or funding rates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.