Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara will settle this market across defined Celsius bands. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's historical data capture for that specific calendar date, with settlement occurring in USDC once the meteorological record closes. Ankara's continental climate produces significant seasonal variation; May typically marks the transition into summer with daytime highs ranging between 24–28°C, though anomalous heat events can push readings several degrees higher.

Historical May temperature records for Ankara show a long-term mean maximum around 26°C, with extreme outliers occasionally reaching 32–34°C during heat waves driven by Saharan air masses or stalled high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise given the settlement window's distance. Comparable Turkish airport stations exhibit similar May patterns, with Ankara's elevation (about 900 metres) moderating peak temperatures relative to lower-altitude cities.

Traders should monitor European weather model consensus from mid-May onwards, particularly ECMWF and GFS outputs tracking upper-level ridge positioning and moisture advection patterns. Spring 2026 Atlantic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation phases will influence whether blocking anticyclones establish over the Eastern Mediterranean, a key driver of above-normal May heat in central Anatolia. Real-time updates from Turkish meteorological services and regional climate bulletins will sharpen probability estimates as the settlement date approaches, with funding rates on longer-dated crypto derivatives potentially reflecting broader macro risk sentiment if extreme weather events materialise across multiple geographies simultaneously.

Methodology

This page reads Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24? on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.