Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's continued tenure as President through 30 June 2026 is the baseline assumption priced into this market at 1% YES. The resolution criteria require permanent removal—whether through resignation, impeachment and conviction, death in office, or invocation of the 25th Amendment Section 4 (cabinet-led removal)—with any public announcement of such removal triggering immediate settlement to YES regardless of the effective date. Temporary suspension under Section 3 (the 14th Amendment disqualification mechanism) would not qualify unless it results in permanent cessation of presidential duties.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting U.S. President has resigned since Richard Nixon in 1974, and no President has been removed via the 25th Amendment. Impeachment has occurred twice in the modern era without conviction; Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton both survived Senate votes. The 1% probability reflects the rarity of such events combined with Trump's current health status and political control of both chambers of Congress through 2024, which substantially reduces removal risk during the settlement window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track developments in ongoing legal proceedings, particularly any criminal convictions that might trigger constitutional questions about fitness for office. Health-related announcements, shifts in congressional Republican alignment, and any formal 25th Amendment discussions would move the needle materially. The market's tight spread reflects genuine consensus that removal remains an extreme tail event, though the 18-month window and unpredictable nature of political crises mean the 1% floor may undervalue genuine tail risk for contrarian positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.