GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Jil Teichmann is due to face Yasmine Kabbaj in the WTA Rabat quarter-final, with the market settling on the player who advances. The crowd price at 0% YES is a poor guide here: Robinhood’s contract shows Teichmann around 56¢ and Kabbaj 45¢, while preview models from Dimers and Tennistonic both lean Teichmann, putting her roughly in the high-70s for a straight-up win. Teichmann also has the stronger ranking profile in the available data, sitting well above Kabbaj on TennisTemple’s Rabat listing, which helps explain why most pre-match models have treated the Swiss player as the more likely winner.

The main comparables are recent WTA clay matches where the favourite’s edge is driven less by raw market price than by whether the match actually starts and finishes inside the settlement window. Kalshi’s own listing frames this as a set-winner market tied to the same Rabat match, which is useful because any injury retirement, walkover or delay can push the contract away from a simple win/loss read. In USDC-settled markets like this, the practical question is not just who is better on clay, but whether both players take the court and complete the match before the 7-day deadline.

Traders should watch the official Rabat order of play, late injury notes and any weather-related schedule changes, because those are the events most likely to matter more than pre-match pricing. If the match is postponed or interrupted, the contract’s 50-50 fallback becomes relevant; if it starts and then ends unfinished, the settlement terms will depend on whether a winner has been determined. There is no obvious BTC or ETH macro link to the tennis result itself, but broader crypto market moves can still affect liquidity and execution on-chain, especially if volatility in spot or funding rates pulls attention away from smaller event markets.

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Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.