Roland Garros WTA: Emma Raducanu vs Solana Sierra

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Emma Raducanu and Solana Sierra are scheduled to meet in the first or early round of the 2026 Roland Garros women's draw on 24 May. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with market seeding, as both players have realistic paths to competition at the French Open. Raducanu, the 2021 US Open champion, has faced recurring injury setbacks since her breakthrough but remains a seeded player when fit. Sierra, ranked outside the top 100, would need to qualify or receive a wild card entry to face Raducanu in the main draw.

Historical precedent suggests early-round WTA matches at Grand Slams rarely settle to 50-50 unless withdrawal or injury occurs within days of play. Markets on comparable first-round fixtures typically reflect the higher-ranked player's advantage, with probability floors around 65-75% for seeded opponents. The seven-day delay clause is material here: Roland Garros scheduling occasionally shifts matches by 2-3 days due to weather, but extended postponements triggering the tie resolution are uncommon. Raducanu's injury history warrants monitoring; any withdrawal announcement before 23 May would void the match entirely.

Traders should track official Roland Garros draw announcements (expected late May) and Raducanu's fitness updates through WTA communications. Her participation status typically clarifies 10-14 days before the tournament. Sierra's qualification results, if required, conclude by 22 May. USDC settlement occurs within 48 hours of match completion, with no funding rate mechanics applying to tennis outcomes on most on-chain books.

Methodology

This page reads Roland Garros WTA: Emma Raducanu vs Solana Sierra on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.