Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Alina Charaeva and Ayla Aksu are scheduled to meet in a **WTA 125** semi-final in Figueira da Foz, with the match listed for Court 1 and a start time around 11:10–11:30 UTC on 20 June 2026.[1][3][6] For this market, the key settlement point is simple: if one player advances, that named player wins the contract; if the match is not completed in time or is abandoned without a winner, it falls back to a 50-50 outcome under the market rules.

A **100% YES** crowd price is only consistent with near-certainty that the market is already effectively resolved on-chain or that the underlying event has been completed off-exchange in practice. In comparable tennis markets, the decisive inputs are not pre-match rankings but the actual official result, because tennis settlement depends on whether the tour scoreline records a completed advancement, retirement, walkover, or abandonment.[2][3] Charaeva has been tracked as the live entrant in recent tournament listings, but that alone does not settle the contract; the outcome hinges on whether the fixture was played to a winner before the 7-day grace window closes.[1][5]

Traders should watch the tournament schedule, any late court change, and the official match status in live scoring feeds, because those are the events that determine whether the contract settles to one side or reverts to 50-50.[1][3][6] If the match is delayed, cancelled, or interrupted, the settlement window matters more than the original draw time, and that is the main catalyst here rather than broader crypto moves. On the crypto side, a fully priced prediction market generally reflects tight USDC cash-settlement confidence, so there is usually little sensitivity unless there is a wider risk-off move in BTC or ETH funding that affects market participation rather than the tennis result itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.