Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Susan Bandecchi and Alina Charaeva met in the Figueira da Foz quarter-finals on hard court, with live-score pages showing Charaeva leading at one stage and the match ultimately recorded as a Charaeva win in a three-setter. Head-to-head pages also indicate Bandecchi had held the edge in their previous meetings before this event, so the market’s 100% YES price is consistent with a settled result rather than an unresolved one.[1][2][4]

For a USDC-settled prediction contract, the practical read is simple: once a completed winner is logged before the settlement window closes, the token should gravitate to the named player who advanced; only a cancellation, tie, or a delay beyond seven days would force the 50-50 fallback. Comparable market behaviour in tennis often tracks the official match state more than pre-match odds, and in this case the presence of a published quarter-final listing and later scoreline sharply reduces ambiguity about outcome risk.[3][8]

The key catalysts are not betting swings but event administration: any correction to the tournament draw, a formal walkover, or a scoring adjustment by the event feed could alter settlement if the market had not already locked to the recorded advance. Traders usually watch the official order of play and live-scoring providers first, because those feeds determine whether a match was actually completed, and that distinction matters more than any broader BTC or ETH move unless the market is being repriced through a crypto-wide risk change.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.