Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mirra Andreeva, the 17-year-old Russian prospect, faces Swiss veteran Jil Teichmann in the Roland Garros WTA draw scheduled for 31 May 2026. The 91% implied probability for Andreeva reflects her trajectory as a rising junior talent and recent performances on the WTA circuit, though the match remains subject to draw confirmation and court assignment closer to the tournament date.

Andreeva's seeding and form heading into Roland Garros will be the primary driver of settlement confidence. Her results through spring 2026—particularly performances at Madrid and Rome—establish baseline expectations; a run to a WTA 500 or 1000 final would reinforce the market's heavy weighting towards her advancement. Teichmann, ranked outside the top 50 in recent seasons, has struggled with consistency and injury, making her an underdog in most matchups against rising players. The WTA tour schedule and any late withdrawals or illness announcements in the fortnight before the tournament could shift both players' preparation quality and physical readiness.

The settlement window closes 7 June 2026, allowing a six-day buffer beyond the scheduled date. Incomplete matches—those abandoned mid-play with one player advancing via retirement or disqualification—resolve to the advancing player, not 50-50. On-chain liquidity for this market will likely tighten as the match date approaches; traders monitoring USDC settlement flows and funding rates on related sports derivatives may detect shifts in confidence if injury reports or late draw changes emerge. Early withdrawal or a surprise opponent substitution would trigger the 50-50 tie-break clause.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.