US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill

Platform comparison

Market context

Francesco Passaro and Felix Gill were drawn to meet in the first round of US Open qualifying, with the match listed for Court 16 on 24 August and both players closely matched in ranking, which helps explain why pre-match markets did not have a large edge from the tennis side alone.[4][6][9] The relevant comparison is straightforward: this is a qualifying-round match on outdoor hard courts, with no meaningful head-to-head history to anchor a strong prior, so any live move in the market usually comes from confirmation of the draw, court assignment and whether play actually starts rather than from a long statistical edge.[1][2][11][13]

For a contract priced at 100% YES, the main question is operational rather than predictive: whether the scheduled contest is completed enough for a winner to be officially recorded before the settlement deadline.[4][10] The US Open qualifying schedule leaves limited slack around late-session delays, and market attention should stay on order-of-play updates, any reshuffle between courts, and whether the match is finished or pushed past the resolution window; if it is not played at all, or no winner is determined by 7 September, the contract’s fallback to 50-50 becomes the key on-chain outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.