Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Cameron Norrie and Mariano Navone were drawn to meet in the Geneva Open round of 16, with ATP scores showing Navone won the match 6-4, 6-4. That makes the contract’s current 0% YES pricing a stale reflection of the outcome rather than a live view of pre-match expectations. For comparison, tennis resolution markets on-chain typically reprice sharply only when there is credible confirmation from the ATP or tournament feeds; once a result is recorded, settlement risk usually collapses quickly because the payoff is binary and tied to an identifiable winner.

For traders, the main watchpoints are administrative rather than sporting: whether the ATP and tournament scoreboard entries remain consistent, whether the event is officially marked completed, and whether there is any correction to the match status within the settlement window. The ATP’s live stats centre and Geneva event pages are the most relevant references, with the result already appearing on ATP and related tournament feeds. Because this market settles in USDC, the only meaningful crypto-side variable is platform solvency and transfer timing, not price direction; broader BTC or ETH moves matter only insofar as they affect exchange balances or margin conditions, which is not the case here.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.