Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Emilio Nava and Pedro Martinez met in Roland Garros qualifying, with Martinez advancing in straight sets, 6-3 6-3, according to Roland Garros and live-score feeds. That makes the current 100% crowd-implied price broadly consistent with the live sporting outcome rather than a speculative view of the draw. In comparable tennis markets, once a match result is posted by the tournament and mirrored by secondary data sites such as Sofascore and Flashscore, pricing tends to converge quickly to certainty unless there is a cancellation, retirement, or scoring dispute.

For settlement, the main check is whether the result is formally recorded before the 2026-05-29 09:00 UTC window closes. Kalshi’s market pages indicate the event is tied to the specific qualification match and uses the usual advance/withdrawal language, so the relevant catalysts are any official corrections from Roland Garros, ATP or the data feed used for market resolution. On the crypto side, the contract settles in USDC, so broader BTC or ETH volatility only matters indirectly through venue liquidity and hedging flow; exchange spot action or funding rates are unlikely to change the outcome, but they can affect how tightly secondary market prices track the realised tennis result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.