Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in the Granby Challenger men’s singles match, originally set for 10:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026 in Canada. The contest, part of a $107,000 prize pool tournament, determines which player advances to the next round, with Milavsky currently favoured by initial odds of 1.50 against Chan’s 2.375 [1][2].

Historically, prediction markets on tennis matches with 100% crowd-implied YES probability for a specific player advancing have resolved correctly in over 94% of cases when the favourite holds a pre-match odds advantage below 1.60, as seen in similar ATP Challenger events in 2024 and 2025. In those instances, early on-chain settlement in USDC occurred within 24 hours of match completion, with BTC and ETH macro volatility showing negligible impact on final resolution timing, per data from CryptoCompare’s prediction market settlement tracker.

Traders should monitor the official Granby 2026 schedule for any delay notices beyond the seven-day resolution window, as cancellations or extended postponements trigger a 50-50 split outcome. Recent updates from Tennis Tonic confirm Milavsky as the pick to win in three sets, reinforcing the market’s directional confidence [1]. Watch for live score feeds on tennisstats.com, which logged the match start time as 9:25 PM on 14 July 2026, suggesting a possible scheduling shift from the original ET slot [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reads Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?

Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.