Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

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Market context

Andrea Guerrieri and Max Alcala Gurri were scheduled to meet in the ATP Challenger Cervia semi-final, with ATP live scoring showing Alcala Gurri as the winner by 7-5, 7-5. That makes the contract’s read straightforward if the result is accepted as final: on-chain settlement should map to the completed match outcome rather than pre-match pricing. The crowd-implied 0% YES is therefore not a view on tennis quality so much as a reflection that the result is already known and the market is effectively pricing the settlement mechanics.

In comparable tennis markets, the key distinction is whether the match has started, finished, or been abandoned. Once a winner is recorded by the tour or the score provider, the usual risk shifts from sporting uncertainty to administrative mismatch: delayed updates, disputed retirements, or cancellation rules within the settlement window. On BTC and ETH markets, that can matter indirectly if a broad risk-off move reduces liquidity, but for this contract the main driver is the official match status rather than crypto spot or funding rates.

Traders should watch the ATP score archive, tournament draw updates, and any qualifier or retirement notice from Cervia, because those determine whether the market settles as a completed match or falls back to the 50-50 rule if the event is not recognised in time. If the result remains consistent across ATP, Flashscore, and SofaScore, the settlement path is usually clear; if not, the on-chain oracle or market resolver becomes the critical dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.