Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet

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Market context

Felix Gill and Kyrian Jacquet were scheduled to meet in Roland Garros qualifying on 22 May, with the market here settling on who advances rather than who wins the next set or finishes the match. The current 100% YES pricing implies the market is effectively treating the fixture as already decided in favour of one side, even though tennis settlement risk still sits with the official result and any late walkover, retirement, or abandonment can matter if the match is not completed.

Comparable Roland Garros qualifying markets usually move less on broad rankings than on very late signals: confirmed withdrawals, warm-up reports, court order changes and whether a player has completed previous qualifying rounds without injury. In ATP qualifying, a match that starts and then stops can still settle on advancement, but a match not played at all, or pushed beyond the seven-day window, can flip to the market’s 50-50 fallback. That makes the exact status of the tie more important than the pre-match price.

For traders, the key catalysts are official draw updates, start-time changes and any ATP or tournament communication on retirements or walkovers. Because settlement is ultimately an on-chain USDC event on the prediction market side, the practical risk is not price discovery but whether the underlying tennis result is recorded cleanly before 29 May. Broader crypto conditions can still affect secondary market liquidity, but they do not change the binary tournament outcome unless the contract falls back to its no-result rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.