Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Arthur Fery vs Pedro Martinez

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Market context

Arthur Fery and Pedro Martinez are scheduled to meet in Roland Garros qualifying, with the market settling on the player who advances. The current 0% YES price implies the crowd sees Martinez as overwhelmingly likely to win, which is consistent with the usual ranking gap between a main-draw clay-court regular and a lower-ranked home qualifier. In tennis markets, that sort of extreme pricing often reflects the expectation of a straight-sets result, with only injury, retirement, or a scheduling change giving the underdog a path back into the contract.

For traders, the key watchpoint is whether the match is completed within the seven-day settlement window ending 2026-05-27T12:30:00Z, since a delay beyond that would push the market to a 50-50 resolution regardless of pre-match expectations. Court assignments and start times can still move at Grand Slam qualifying, and any official withdrawal or retirement would matter more than live score impressions if the winner is not formally recorded. On the crypto side, the contract settles in USDC, so broader BTC and ETH moves matter mainly through risk appetite rather than tennis fundamentals; funding rates, spot volatility, and exchange flows can affect how thinly priced markets are around event time, but they do not change the underlying result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Arthur Fery vs Pedro Martinez on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.