Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Francisco Comesana and Jaume Munar were due to meet in Geneva on 20 May, but the contract is now mainly about whether the match is completed within the settlement window. The crowd price at 0% YES implies the market is treating a straightforward advancing winner as unlikely to be resolved in the normal way, so the key factual read is less about form and more about whether the ATP schedule delivers a completed result before 27 May. On-chain, that means the USDC payout path is still contingent on an official result being recorded, with any no-contest, abandonment, or prolonged delay forcing the 50-50 fallback rather than a player-specific settlement.

Comparable ATP clay matches with late scheduling changes usually move sharply only when an official order of play, retirement, or withdrawal is posted. Munar is the more established clay-court profile, while Comesana is the less proven name at this level, but those pre-match edges matter less here than venue timing and completion risk. For traders linking this to broader crypto positioning, BTC and ETH spot volatility can affect overall risk appetite, but the contract itself should react first to tennis-specific updates rather than macro. If a match result lands on site, the settlement path is mechanical; if not, the clause on delay beyond seven days becomes the decisive factor.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.