Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Liam Broady’s Wimbledon qualifying match against August Holmgren is priced as a near-certain Broady advance, even though the contract only pays out on the actual outcome of this scheduled grass-court meeting and can flip to 50-50 if the match is never played or is left unresolved past the settlement rules. Kalshi’s tennis contract language shows that non-starters, walkovers and some retirements can be handled as fair value rather than a normal win/loss outcome, while the market here gives a specific fallback if the fixture is cancelled or drifts beyond the 7-day window.[1]

The current 100% implied probability is consistent with a market that may be thin rather than genuinely unanimous: Broady is listed as the lower-ranked player in one live scoreboard feed, but other pre-match listings place him as the favourite, and the pair have already met in a competitive ATP match this season, which gives traders a recent form reference rather than a blank slate.[4][5] In practice, that makes the contract sensitive to any last-minute change in match status more than to marginal price moves.

For traders, the main catalysts are simple and operational: whether Wimbledon keeps the match on court as scheduled, whether either player withdraws, and whether live results feed confirms a completed contest before the settlement deadline. FanDuel’s listing placed the start time around 10:00am ET on 22 June, while live-score providers tracked it for the same day, so any postponement, retirement, or score-feed ambiguity matters because the payout logic depends on the match being played and advanced cleanly.[3][6] On the crypto side, USDC settlement means the market price can stay pinned near yes while the real risk is a binary rules event rather than token-market volatility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.