Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova Match O/U 21.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
This market refers to the tennis match between Anastasia Potapova and Karolina Muchova in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anastasia Potapova' if Anastasia Potapova advances against Karolina Muchova. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Muchova' if Karolina Muchova advances against Anastasia Potapova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs K… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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