Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: PL (-1.5) vs Twisted Saints Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pixel Lumina (-2.5) vs Twisted Saints Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Pixel Lumina (-2.5) vs Twisted Saints Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Twisted Saints Esports (-2.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Pixel Lumina (-2.5) vs Twisted Saints Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TSE (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Twisted Saints Esports (-2.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Twisted Saints Esports (-2.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: twisted saints esports vs pixel lumina (bo3) - vcl emea: last chance qualifier group a. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Twisted Saints Esports and Pixel Lumina in the VCL EMEA: Last Chance Qualifier Group A, initially scheduled for July 7 at 1:30PM ET…
Methodology
This page reads Valorant: Twisted Saints Esports vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Last Chance Qualifier Group A on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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