Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 75% |
| Map 2 Winner | 59% |
| Match Winner | 56% |
| Map 1 Winner | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Fnatic (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 31% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 25% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 75% chance of valorant: fnatic vs karmine corp (bo3) - vct emea group omega. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Fnatic and Karmine Corp in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 22 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Fn…
Methodology
This page reads Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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