Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 57% |
| O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| Team to Advance | 53% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 35% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) | 25% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 22% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Olympique Lyonnais O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5) | 11% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) | 11% |
| Olympique Lyonnais 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5) | 3% |
Market context
The Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for August 18 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reads Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais - More Markets on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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