BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

BK Hacken will host Hammarby IF in an Allsvenskan fixture on 31 May 2026, with settlement in USDC occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The 21% implied probability for a Hacken victory reflects the visiting side's recent competitive standing and home-ground dynamics in Swedish football's top division. Hammarby have historically held stronger league positions and squad depth relative to Hacken, though individual season form and injury status remain critical variables for any single-match outcome.

Historical precedent suggests that Allsvenskan home sides win roughly 40–45% of fixtures, with away victories accounting for approximately 25–30% depending on the season and relative team quality. Hacken's current odds sit below typical home-side baseline expectations, indicating the market has priced in either a recent dip in form, squad instability, or Hammarby's superior recent trajectory. Comparable Swedish league matches involving mid-table home sides against stronger visitors have settled similarly when the away team carries momentum heading into the fixture.

Traders should monitor team news releases and official Allsvenskan schedules through May for injury announcements, managerial changes, or late fixture alterations. Recent Hammarby and Hacken league performance, available via Fotbollskanalen and official club channels, will clarify whether the current probability reflects genuine form divergence or market overweighting of historical strength. Funding rates on related football derivative markets and spot USDC liquidity conditions may shift as settlement approaches, particularly if either side experiences unexpected roster disruptions in the final weeks before kick-off.

Methodology

This page reads BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.