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World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination

"World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination" — on-chain market odds, USDC settlement in seconds.

50% YES 50% NO Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $160K Closes: 19 Jul 2026
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World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
BTC Prediction Pick
polygram.ink
 50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open on BTC Prediction →
Polymarket
polymarket.com
 50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open on BTC Prediction →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open on BTC Prediction →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open on BTC Prediction →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open on BTC Prediction →

Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on BTC Prediction.

Active sub-markets

Other50% YES50% NO
Group Stage0% YES100% NO
Round of 3221% YES80% NO
Round of 1622% YES79% NO
Quarterfinals16% YES85% NO
Semifinals18% YES82% NO

Market context

The World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination prediction market currently prices this outcome at 50% YES. This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Spain is eliminated. If Spain wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Spain is disqualified,…

Methodology

This page reads World Cup: Spain Stage of Elimination on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, BTC Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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