Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 66% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 60% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 55% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 53% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 46% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 9% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
England vs. DR Congo - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 91%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reads England vs. DR Congo - Player Props on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
- Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
- In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
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