SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio

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Market context

Napoli will travel to the Friuli region on Sunday, 24 May 2026 to face Udinese in what is scheduled as a final-day Serie A fixture. The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, with settlement contingent on the game being played and a winner declared by the settlement deadline at 13:00 UTC. Fixture cancellation or postponement beyond the window would trigger a NO resolution, though such outcomes remain statistically rare in Italian domestic football absent extraordinary circumstances.

Historical precedent shows that end-of-season Serie A matches rarely fail to materialise. Over the past decade, fixture abandonment or rescheduling within 48 hours of kickoff has occurred in fewer than 2% of cases, typically only following severe weather, civil unrest, or stadium safety issues. Udinese's home ground, the Stadio Friuli, has maintained consistent operational status. The 100% probability thus reflects baseline fixture reliability rather than any special confidence in a particular outcome; traders should distinguish between match occurrence (the settlement condition) and competitive result.

Key catalysts include official confirmation of squad availability and any late injury announcements from either club in the 72 hours preceding kickoff. Serie A fixture lists are published by Lega Serie A; any rescheduling would be announced through official channels. Weather forecasts for the Udine region should be monitored from Friday onwards. On-chain USDC settlement will execute once match data is confirmed through standard sports data feeds, with the binary outcome (match played yes/no) determining contract resolution independent of the scoreline.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.