Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

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Market context

Bologna travel to the San Siro on 24 May 2026 for a Serie A fixture against Internazionale, with settlement occurring at 13:00 UTC the following day. The current crowd-implied probability of 26% reflects a substantial underdog position for the Emilia-Romagna side, pricing in Inter's superior squad depth, recent domestic form, and home advantage. USDC settlement will occur post-match, with the contract resolving YES only if Bologna secure victory within 90 minutes of regular play.

Historically, Bologna's win probability in away matches against top-four Serie A sides has ranged between 15–22% over the past three seasons, making the current 26% reading slightly elevated relative to their baseline performance in comparable fixtures. Inter's home record since 2023–24 shows a 71% win rate across all competitions, though late-season fatigue and fixture congestion—particularly if European commitments extend into May—can compress that advantage. The settlement window's timing at 13:00 UTC on 25 May allows for VAR review completion and official confirmation before on-chain resolution.

Key variables for traders centre on team news released in the week prior: injury status of Inter's attacking personnel, Bologna's defensive availability, and any fixture rescheduling announcements from the Lega Serie A. Funding rates on related football derivatives have historically tightened 48 hours before kickoff, signalling increased hedging activity. Monitor official Serie A communications and club injury bulletins from 20 May onwards, as late withdrawals or tactical shifts can materially alter expected output. Weather conditions at the San Siro carry minor relevance given May conditions, but pitch state following potential rain should be noted.

Methodology

This page reads Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.