Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 95% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 90% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 89% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 87% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 85% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 84% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 82% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 81% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 80% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 79% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 79% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 79% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 77% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 76% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 75% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 74% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 74% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 73% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 71% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 69% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 67% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 67% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 67% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 65% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 62% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 62% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 59% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 58% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 56% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 55% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 53% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| George Pickens: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Attempts O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| George Pickens: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jake Ferguson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonathan Mingo: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tyler Goodson: Team First TD (Dallas Cowboys) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 49% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 45% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 44% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 39% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Javonte Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 39% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 36% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 35% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 34% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 32% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 31% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 30% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 30% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 29% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 28% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 28% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 28% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 27% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 26% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 26% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 22% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Javonte Williams: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Javonte Williams: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 21% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 21% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jake Ferguson: Anytime Touchdown | 21% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 20% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| George Pickens: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 20% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 19% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 19% |
| Luke Schoonmaker: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 18% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 18% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 17% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 119.5 | 17% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 17% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 16% |
| George Pickens: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 16% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 16% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 16% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 15% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 15% |
| Ryan Flournoy: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 13% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| CeeDee Lamb: Receptions O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Tyler Goodson: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 12% |
| Javonte Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 12% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 12% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 11% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 11% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 11% |
| George Pickens: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 11% |
| CeeDee Lamb: 2+ Touchdowns | 11% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 11% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 10% |
| Dak Prescott: Anytime Touchdown | 9% |
| KaVontae Turpin: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| Dak Prescott: Passing Yards O/U 374.5 | 7% |
| George Pickens: 2+ Touchdowns | 6% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 6% |
| Javonte Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 5% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford: Anytime Touchdown | 5% |
| Jake Ferguson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 4% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Cowboys vs. Packers - Player Props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reads Cowboys vs. Packers - Player Props on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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