Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 100% |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 99% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 99% |
| Spread -2.5 | 98% |
| O/U 32.5 | 98% |
| Spread -3.5 | 97% |
| O/U 34.5 | 97% |
| Spread -4.5 | 96% |
| O/U 36.5 | 96% |
| Spread -5.5 | 96% |
| Spread -6.5 | 95% |
| Spread -7.5 | 93% |
| Spread -8.5 | 91% |
| Spread -9.5 | 89% |
| O/U 38.5 | 85% |
| Spread -10.5 | 85% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| O/U 40.5 | 77% |
| Spread -13.5 | 77% |
| O/U 42.5 | 75% |
| Spread -14.5 | 75% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 69% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| Spread -16.5 | 60% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 58% |
| O/U 44.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 55% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Spread -17.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| O/U 46.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-12 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 47% |
| Spread -19.5 | 46% |
| Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Spread -19.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 41% |
| Spread -20.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Spread -21.5 | 40% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 39% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 25+ | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 15% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 6% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 6% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 6% |
| O/U 60.5 | 5% |
| O/U 62.5 | 2% |
| O/U 64.5 | 2% |
| O/U 68.5 | 2% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 2% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Bears vs. Packers | 1% |
| O/U 66.5 | 1% |
| Spread -1.5 | 1% |
| Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| Spread -3.5 | 1% |
| Spread -4.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
| Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
The Bears vs. Packers prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Packers, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game. This market will resolve to "Packers" if …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $2.3M.
Methodology
This page reads Bears vs. Packers on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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