Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 88% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| O/U 32.5 | 85% |
| Giants O/U 12.5 | 85% |
| Giants O/U 13.5 | 85% |
| Giants O/U 10.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| O/U 36.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Giants O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| Giants 1H O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| O/U 40.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | 55% |
| O/U 43.5 | 54% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| 1H Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Giants 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Giants 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. Giants: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giants Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| O/U 45.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| O/U 46.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 47.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Giants 1H O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 35% |
| Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| O/U 50.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 29% |
| O/U 52.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| Giants O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 25% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Giants 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 54.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 19% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Giants 1H O/U 17.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| Giants 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Giants O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Giants 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 60.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Giants O/U 30.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Cardinals vs. Giants. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 1:00PM ET: If Cardinals wins, the market will resolve to "Cardinals". If Giants wins, the market will resolve to "Giants". If the game is postponed…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $72K.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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