Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 213.5 | 96% |
| O/U 215.5 | 95% |
| O/U 217.5 | 93% |
| O/U 219.5 | 92% |
| O/U 221.5 | 90% |
| O/U 223.5 | 88% |
| Bulls O/U 110.5 | 88% |
| O/U 225.5 | 85% |
| Wizards O/U 110.5 | 84% |
| O/U 227.5 | 82% |
| Bulls O/U 116.5 | 80% |
| O/U 229.5 | 79% |
| Bulls O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| Wizards O/U 112.5 | 79% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 230.5 | 77% |
| O/U 231.5 | 75% |
| Bulls O/U 114.5 | 74% |
| Wizards O/U 114.5 | 73% |
| O/U 233.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 70% |
| O/U 235.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 68% |
| O/U 236.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 66% |
| O/U 237.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 65% |
| O/U 238.5 | 63% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 63% |
| Bulls O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| Wizards O/U 118.5 | 62% |
| O/U 239.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 59% |
| Bulls O/U 120.5 | 57% |
| O/U 241.5 | 56% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 56% |
| O/U 242.5 | 55% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 55% |
| Wizards O/U 120.5 | 55% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| O/U 243.5 | 53% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 66.5 | 51% |
| Bulls O/U 122.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 244.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trae Young: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Anthony Davis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Bulls 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Wizards 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 49% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Wizards vs. Bulls | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Wizards O/U 122.5 | 47% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 39.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 246.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 45% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 39.5 | 45% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Bulls O/U 124.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 43% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 17.5 | 42% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 42% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 249.5 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Wizards O/U 124.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Bulls O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 37% |
| Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 36% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 22.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 64.5 | 34% |
| O/U 252.5 | 33% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Bulls O/U 128.5 | 33% |
| Wizards 1H O/U 64.5 | 33% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 12.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Bulls 1H O/U 66.5 | 29% |
| Spread -9.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Bulls O/U 130.5 | 28% |
| O/U 255.5 | 27% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Wizards O/U 130.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 22% |
| Bulls O/U 132.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 21% |
| Spread -11.5 | 20% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Wizards O/U 132.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 18% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 137.5 | 17% |
| Bulls O/U 134.5 | 17% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 139.5 | 16% |
| Wizards O/U 134.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Davis: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 13.5 | 14% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 141.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Trae Young: Assists O/U 15.5 | 12% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Trae Young: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Trae Young: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Anthony Davis: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Norman Powell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Anthony Davis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Smith: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Kyshawn George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyshawn George: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| Trae Young: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Spread -23.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Matas Buzelis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 4% |
| Spread -26.5 | 4% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -27.5 | 2% |
Market context
Wizards vs. Bulls — current market-implied probability: 96%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Wizards win, the market will resolve to "Wizards". If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $211K.
Methodology
This page reads Wizards vs. Bulls on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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