Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 206.5 | 95% |
| O/U 208.5 | 93% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 93% |
| O/U 210.5 | 91% |
| O/U 212.5 | 88% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 88% |
| Spurs vs. Jazz | 86% |
| Spread -1.5 | 85% |
| O/U 214.5 | 85% |
| O/U 216.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 84% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 83% |
| O/U 218.5 | 81% |
| Keyonte George: Points O/U 14.5 | 81% |
| Spread -3.5 | 80% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 79% |
| 1H Moneyline | 78% |
| O/U 220.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 77% |
| Spread -5.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 75% |
| Jazz O/U 101.5 | 75% |
| O/U 222.5 | 74% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| Race to 30 | 72% |
| Spread -6.5 | 72% |
| Spread -7.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 71% |
| Spurs O/U 111.5 | 71% |
| Race to 20 | 70% |
| O/U 224.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 69% |
| Spread -8.5 | 67% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 67% |
| O/U 226.5 | 66% |
| Jazz O/U 99.5 | 66% |
| Spurs O/U 113.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 51.5 | 64% |
| Spurs O/U 115.5 | 64% |
| Jazz O/U 105.5 | 63% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| O/U 228.5 | 62% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 12.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 62% |
| Race to 10 | 61% |
| Spread -10.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 61% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 59.5 | 61% |
| Jazz O/U 103.5 | 61% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 60% |
| Spurs O/U 117.5 | 60% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 59% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 52.5 | 59% |
| Keyonte George: Points O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 58% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 58% |
| Jazz O/U 107.5 | 58% |
| Spread -11.5 | 57% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Spurs O/U 121.5 | 57% |
| O/U 230.5 | 56% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 61.5 | 56% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 54.5 | 56% |
| Spurs O/U 119.5 | 56% |
| Spread -12.5 | 55% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Spread -13.5 | 52% |
| O/U 232.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 52% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 67.5 | 52% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 51% |
| Jazz O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Jazz 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Spurs O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Spurs 2H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Jazz 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Jazz 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Jazz 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Jazz 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Keyonte George: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Keyonte George: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| O/U 234.5 | 47% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| Keyonte George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spurs 1H O/U 65.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 58.5 | 45% |
| Spurs O/U 127.5 | 45% |
| Keyonte George: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Spread -15.5 | 44% |
| O/U 236.5 | 44% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 43% |
| Jazz O/U 111.5 | 43% |
| Jazz O/U 113.5 | 43% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 42% |
| Spurs O/U 125.5 | 42% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -16.5 | 41% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 60.5 | 41% |
| Spurs O/U 129.5 | 41% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -17.5 | 40% |
| O/U 238.5 | 40% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 40% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 56.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Keyonte George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 38% |
| Spurs O/U 131.5 | 38% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 37% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 240.5 | 36% |
| Keyonte George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -19.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Keyonte George: Steals O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| O/U 242.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Jazz O/U 115.5 | 31% |
| Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| Spurs O/U 133.5 | 30% |
| Spurs O/U 135.5 | 30% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Keyonte George: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Spread -21.5 | 29% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| O/U 244.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 246.5 | 25% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 25% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Jazz O/U 117.5 | 25% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Spread -23.5 | 23% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 128.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 63.5 | 23% |
| Keyonte George: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| O/U 248.5 | 21% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -25.5 | 19% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 250.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 18% |
| Keyonte George: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Keyonte George: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 132.5 | 17% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -27.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| O/U 252.5 | 15% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 19.5 | 15% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Jazz O/U 121.5 | 14% |
| Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Keyonte George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -29.5 | 13% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 13% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| O/U 254.5 | 12% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| 1H O/U 134.5 | 12% |
| Keyonte George: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -2.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Spread -31.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Keyonte George: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Keyonte George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Keyonte George: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Keyonte George: Points O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Keyonte George: Assists O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Spread -33.5 | 8% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Keyonte George: Assists O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 8% |
| Keyonte George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Keyonte George: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 8% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| Spread -35.5 | 7% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 44.5 | 7% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| 1H O/U 136.5 | 6% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Keyonte George: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -37.5 | 4% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Spread -12.5 | 3% |
| Spread -39.5 | 3% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of spurs vs. jazz. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 9:00PM ET: If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the Jazz win, the market will resolve to "Jazz". If the ga…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $754K.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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