Knicks vs. Cavaliers

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Market context

The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers meet in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday in Cleveland, with New York holding a 2-0 series lead after winning 115-104 and 109-93 at Madison Square Garden. A 45% implied price for the Knicks suggests a market that is still allowing for home-court adjustment and a Cavaliers response, rather than pricing the series as close to decided. In playoff series, early favourites can remain underpriced if the losing side has strong underlying numbers or a clear venue swing, but a 2-0 deficit has historically been difficult to reverse, which makes the current level look more cautious than decisive.

Game 3 is the main catalyst, but traders should also watch injury reports, any late roster updates and whether either side alters rotation patterns after the Knicks’ third-quarter runs in Games 1 and 2. ESPN reported on 22 May that Cleveland sees the task ahead as surmountable, noting Donovan Mitchell’s reference to the team’s comeback from 2-0 down against Detroit earlier in the playoffs. For this market, the settlement mechanics are straightforward: the event resolves to the winner of the completed game, including overtime, so postponement would keep it open until played, while cancellation without a make-up would produce a 50-50 result. In crypto terms, the price will mostly track basketball news rather than BTC or ETH direction unless wider risk moves spill into exchange flows, stablecoin balances or on-chain liquidity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reads Knicks vs. Cavaliers on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.