Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 77% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 60% |
| O/U 225.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| O/U 227.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| O/U 230.5 | 45% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 41% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 38% |
| O/U 233.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 32% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 30% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| O/U 239.5 | 25% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 21% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
Market context
Rockets vs. Spurs — current market-implied probability: 83%. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $78K.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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