Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 197.5 | 92% |
| O/U 199.5 | 90% |
| O/U 201.5 | 88% |
| O/U 203.5 | 86% |
| O/U 205.5 | 82% |
| O/U 207.5 | 80% |
| O/U 209.5 | 77% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 90.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 96.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 92.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 94.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| O/U 211.5 | 72% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| O/U 213.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 215.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| O/U 217.5 | 61% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 59% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| O/U 219.5 | 55% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 54% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 53% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 221.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Collin Gillespie: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Green: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Khaman Maluach: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Suns O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 100.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 102.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 104.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 92.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 94.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 96.5 | 50% |
| Warriors O/U 98.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| O/U 223.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 39.5 | 45% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 224.5 | 44% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| O/U 225.5 | 41% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 227.5 | 37% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| O/U 229.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5 | 33% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 33% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 32% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 31% |
| O/U 231.5 | 30% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 29% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 29% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Suns O/U 122.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| O/U 233.5 | 26% |
| Khaman Maluach: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 25% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | 24% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 24% |
| O/U 235.5 | 23% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 23% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 237.5 | 20% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 18% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 17% |
| Suns O/U 126.5 | 17% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| Spread -23.5 | 15% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Devin Booker: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -25.5 | 12% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jalen Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| Spread -27.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Khaman Maluach: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Collin Gillespie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Jalen Green: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Miles Bridges: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Spread -29.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Points O/U 34.5 | 7% |
| Miles Bridges: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Devin Booker: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Collin Gillespie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Dillon Brooks: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -31.5 | 6% |
| Spread -33.5 | 6% |
| O/U 251.5 | 6% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Dillon Brooks: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Miles Bridges: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Devin Booker: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Collin Gillespie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 3% |
| Spread -18.5 | 2% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
Market context
The Warriors vs. Suns prediction market currently prices this outcome at 92% YES. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 10:00PM ET: If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If the game is postpon…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $125K.
Methodology
This page reads Warriors vs. Suns on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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