Market statistics
- Total volume
- $930K
- 24h volume
- $881K
- Liquidity
- $62K
- Open interest
- $782K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami CF.
Wikipedia Context
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FC CincinnatiFootball Club Cincinnati is an American professional soccer club based in Cincinnati. The club competes in Major League Soccer (MLS) as a member of the Eastern Conference. The team was first announced on August 12, 2015, as a United Soccer League (USL) franchise which played from 2016 to 2018. On May 29, 2018, the club's ownership was awarded an MLS franchis
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FC Cincinnati 2FC Cincinnati 2 is an American professional soccer team based in Cincinnati, Ohio, United States. It is the reserve team of FC Cincinnati and participates in MLS Next Pro.
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TQL StadiumTQL Stadium is a soccer-specific stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, United States. It is the home of Major League Soccer (MLS) team FC Cincinnati, who have played there since the stadium opened on May 16, 2021. The stadium holds approximately 26,000 spectators and is located in the West End neighborhood, at the former site of Stargel Stadium on Central Parkway at
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2024 FC Cincinnati season
The 2024 FC Cincinnati season was the club's sixth season in MLS, and the ninth season overall for the team including their first three years in the lower-division USL. The club entered 2024 as the defending Supporters' Shield winners, the award given to the team that finishes with the most points in the regular season.
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
Trade FC Cincinnati vs. Inter Miami CF on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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