Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?

USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.

What does a transaction cost on Polygon?

Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros | BTC Prediction

Name: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
Start: 2026-06-28T13:03:22.494Z
End: 2026-07-11T23:10:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	66%	34%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Open live market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	66%	34%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Open live market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Open live market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Open live market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	66%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros	49%
O/U 7.5	46%
NRFI	44%
Spread -1.5	37%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	37%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	28%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	26%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	26%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5	17%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	17%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5	15%
Extra Innings	8%

Market context

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros — current market-implied probability: 66%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros, scheduled for July 4 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This marke…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 66% for "Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 66% Other 34%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $215K.

Methodology

This page reads Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?: USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
What does a transaction cost on Polygon?: Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?: No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
How does UMA secure the resolution?: The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?: In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analystand

David ParkSports Data Analyst

Trade Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros on BTC Prediction

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros on BTC Prediction

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