Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 70% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 20% |
| Dylan Cease | 12% |
| Paul Skenes | 7% |
| Cam Schlittler | 2% |
| Garrett Crochet | 1% |
| Tarik Skubal | 1% |
| Jesús Luzardo | 1% |
| Hunter Brown | 1% |
| Sonny Gray | 1% |
| Bryan Woo | 1% |
| Shota Imanaga | 1% |
| Reid Detmers | 1% |
| Nolan McLean | 1% |
| Max Fried | 1% |
| Kevin Gausman | 1% |
| Logan Webb | 0% |
| Freddy Peralta | 0% |
| Carlos Rodón | 0% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0% |
| Zack Wheeler | 0% |
| Joe Ryan | 0% |
| Taj Bradley | 0% |
| José Soriano | 0% |
| Logan Gilbert | 0% |
| Emerson Hancock | 0% |
| Hunter Greene | 0% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0% |
| Pitcher A | 0% |
| Pitcher B | 0% |
| Pitcher C | 0% |
| Pitcher D | 0% |
| Pitcher E | 0% |
| Pitcher F | 0% |
| Pitcher G | 0% |
| Pitcher H | 0% |
| Pitcher I | 0% |
| Pitcher J | 0% |
| Pitcher K | 0% |
| Pitcher L | 0% |
| Pitcher M | 0% |
| Pitcher N | 0% |
| Pitcher O | 0% |
| Pitcher P | 0% |
| Pitcher Q | 0% |
| Pitcher R | 0% |
| Pitcher S | 0% |
| Pitcher T | 0% |
| Pitcher U | 0% |
| Pitcher V | 0% |
| Pitcher W | 0% |
| Pitcher X | 0% |
| Pitcher Y | 0% |
| Pitcher Z | 0% |
| Pitcher AA | 0% |
| Pitcher AB | 0% |
| Pitcher AC | 0% |
| Pitcher AD | 0% |
| Pitcher AE | 0% |
| Pitcher AF | 0% |
| Pitcher AG | 0% |
| Pitcher AH | 0% |
| Pitcher AI | 0% |
| Pitcher AJ | 0% |
| Pitcher AK | 0% |
| Pitcher AL | 0% |
| Pitcher AM | 0% |
| Pitcher AN | 0% |
| Pitcher AO | 0% |
| Pitcher AP | 0% |
| Pitcher AQ | 0% |
| Pitcher AR | 0% |
| Pitcher AS | 0% |
| Pitcher AT | 0% |
| Pitcher AU | 0% |
| Pitcher AV | 0% |
| Pitcher AW | 0% |
| Pitcher AX | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mlb: strikeouts leader - pitcher stands at 70% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this …
Methodology
This page reads MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
- Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
- Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
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