Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 80% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 8.5 | 53% |
| San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | 50% |
| NRFI | 49% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Extra Innings | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 80% YES probability for San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves. In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for July 22 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. Thi…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $283K.
Methodology
This page reads San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
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