Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Minnesota Twins travel to Boston on 24 May for a regular-season matchup against the Red Sox, with first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. The current 39% crowd-implied probability favours Boston, reflecting the Red Sox's stronger recent form and home-field advantage at Fenway Park. Settlement occurs in USDC against official MLB final statistics, with the window closing 31 May at 17:35 UTC to accommodate any weather-related postponements.

Historical matchup data shows the Red Sox have held a slight edge in head-to-head records over the past three seasons, though the Twins' performance in May has typically tracked above their season averages. The 39% probability sits near the midpoint for road teams in comparable AL East fixtures, suggesting the market has priced in Minnesota's travel disadvantage without heavily discounting their roster depth. Recent Twins acquisitions and Boston's mid-season roster adjustments remain relevant to underlying team strength.

Traders should monitor pitching assignments, as starter quality often drives single-game probabilities by 5–8 percentage points in either direction. Injury reports released 24 hours before game time—particularly for key position players—have historically shifted probabilities on this exchange. Weather forecasts for Boston on game day warrant attention, given Fenway's sensitivity to wind patterns affecting fly-ball outcomes. Any last-minute roster moves or bullpen availability changes announced via MLB's official channels will likely trigger position adjustments among larger holders before settlement.

Methodology

This page reads Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.