What are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Can I use Bitcoin directly?

No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.

How does UMA secure the resolution?

The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.

How volatile are crypto prediction markets?

Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.

Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?

In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers

Name: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Start: 2026-07-20T13:08:14.623Z
End: 2026-08-02T17:40:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Open live market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Open live market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Open live market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Open live market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
NRFI	100%
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers	78%
Spread -1.5	62%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	50%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	50%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	50%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	50%
Extra Innings	50%
O/U 10.5	50%
O/U 11.5	50%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	49%
Spread -2.5	47%
O/U 7.5	44%
O/U 8.5	34%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	30%
O/U 9.5	26%
Spread -1.5	10%
Spread -2.5	7%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers. In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for July 26 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices NRFI at 100% for "Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers".

NRFI 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $131K.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

What are crypto prediction markets?: Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?: No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
How does UMA secure the resolution?: The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
How volatile are crypto prediction markets?: Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?: In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.

James WilliamsPrediction Market Analystand

David ParkSports Data Analyst

Trade Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers on BTC Prediction

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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers on BTC Prediction

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