Market statistics
- Total volume
- $637K
- 24h volume
- $356K
- Open interest
- $441K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (18)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for June 2 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary reso
Wikipedia Context
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Kansas City, MissouriKansas City, abbreviated KC or KCMO, is the largest city in the U.S. state of Missouri by both population and area. It is located on the Missouri River at its confluence with the Kansas River, within Jackson, Clay, Platte and Cass counties. It is the 38th-most populous city in the United States and sixth-most populous city in the Midwest, with a population o
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Kansas City ChiefsThe Kansas City Chiefs are a professional American football team based in Kansas City, Missouri. The Chiefs compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) West division. The team plays its home games at Arrowhead Stadium.
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Kansas City RoyalsThe Kansas City Royals are an American professional baseball team based in Kansas City, Missouri. The Royals compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) Central Division. The team was founded as an expansion franchise in 1969, and have made four World Series trips, winning in 1985 and 2015, and losing in 1980 and 2014.
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Kansas City metropolitan areaThe Kansas City metropolitan area is a bi-state metropolitan area anchored by Kansas City, Missouri. Its fourteen counties straddle the border between the U.S. states of Missouri and Kansas. The 8,472 square miles (21,940 km2) 2024 estimated census calculated a population of more than 2.2 million people, it is the second-largest metropolitan area centered in
Methodology
This page reads Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- Can I use Bitcoin directly?
- No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
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