Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
47% | 53% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
47% | 53% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| NRFI | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| O/U 10.5 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| O/U 11.5 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers face the Baltimore Orioles on 23 May at 4:05PM ET in an MLB regular-season matchup. The current 48% crowd-implied probability for a Tigers victory reflects a near-even assessment, with the settlement window extending to 30 May to accommodate any postponements. USDC settlement will execute against the official final statistics recognised by MLB.
Historical matchups between these franchises show the Orioles have held a slight edge in recent seasons, though the Tigers' 2023–2024 roster improvements have narrowed the competitive gap. The 48% probability sits close to the midpoint, suggesting the market perceives marginal advantages that offset each other—typical for divisional contests where familiarity reduces predictability. Comparable games between mid-tier AL Central and AL East teams have historically resolved near 50–50 when neither side carries significant injury concerns or momentum shifts.
Traders should monitor pitching assignments and bullpen availability in the days leading to fixture kickoff. Recent roster moves, weather forecasts affecting play conditions, and any late-season injury announcements from either club will shift the probability materially. The Tigers' recent form against teams with similar win-loss records provides a useful baseline; check MLB.com and ESPN's injury reports for updates on key position players. Funding rates on related sports derivatives across major exchanges remain stable, indicating no significant whale positioning that would signal sharp money moving into either side ahead of the match.
Methodology
This page reads Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed for comparison. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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