Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians face the Philadelphia Phillies on 23 May at 4:05 PM ET in a regular-season matchup. The current crowd-implied probability of 38% for a Guardians victory reflects moderate confidence in the Phillies, though the settlement window extends to 30 May at 20:05 UTC to account for potential postponements. USDC settlement will execute upon official MLB final statistics confirmation.

Historically, the Guardians have maintained competitive records against the Phillies in recent seasons, though Philadelphia's roster depth and postseason experience have typically favoured them in head-to-head matchups. The 38% probability sits within the range observed for road teams facing established contenders in May fixtures, where sample sizes remain small and injury reports carry outsized influence. Comparable games between division rivals at this stage of the season typically see probabilities cluster between 35–45% for the underdog, depending on pitching matchups and recent form.

Traders should monitor lineup confirmations and starting pitcher announcements in the 48 hours preceding the fixture, as Cleveland's injury status—particularly among position players—has fluctuated throughout May. The Phillies' recent performance against left-handed starters and Cleveland's bullpen depth will shape late-game dynamics. Weather conditions at the venue may also affect play; MLB's official weather reports typically finalise 24 hours before first pitch. Any roster moves or roster-related news from either organisation should be tracked via MLB.com and team official channels, as these frequently shift implied probabilities in the final trading window.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.