Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs face the Pittsburgh Pirates on 25 May at 1:35 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball matchup. Current crowd-implied probability favours the Cubs at 54%, reflecting modest confidence in the home side rather than overwhelming consensus. Settlement occurs via USDC on the btc-prediction.bet platform, with resolution tied to official MLB final statistics. The market remains open through 1 June 2026 should postponement occur; cancellation or a tied result triggers 50-50 resolution.

Historically, Cubs-Pirates matchups show Cubs victory rates around 52–56% across recent seasons, making the current 54% probability consistent with long-term competitive positioning. The Pirates have occasionally exceeded expectations in May fixtures, particularly when their pitching rotation aligns favourably, though the Cubs' roster depth typically provides structural advantage. Comparable regular-season markets on btc-prediction.bet have seen crowd probabilities shift 3–7 percentage points in the 48 hours before game time as injury reports and weather data crystallise.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements (expected by 23 May), weather conditions at Wrigley Field, and any late-roster moves affecting either team's lineup. Recent Cubs performance against left-handed starters and Pirates bullpen availability warrant monitoring through baseball news outlets. Funding rates on related sports derivatives have remained stable, suggesting no material whale positioning driving the probability; spot USDC liquidity on the market itself will determine settlement execution speed once the game concludes.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.