Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Atlanta Braves face the New York Mets on 13 June at 4:10 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball matchup. The 90% implied probability for a Braves victory reflects their superior regular-season record and divisional standing within the National League East as of early June 2026. Settlement occurs via USDC on the btc-prediction.bet platform, with the resolution window extending to 20 June to accommodate any postponements or scheduling adjustments mandated by MLB.

Historical precedent suggests that home-field advantage and recent form carry substantial weight in single-game baseball markets. The Braves' consistent performance against the Mets over recent seasons, combined with Atlanta's stronger win-loss differential, has anchored the elevated probability. Markets pricing divisional matchups typically discount volatility more heavily than non-conference games, as roster familiarity and tactical patterns reduce outcome variance. A 90% probability for the favoured side reflects confidence in baseline performance metrics rather than exceptional circumstance.

Traders should monitor pitcher assignments and injury reports released by both franchises in the days preceding the fixture. Starting pitcher quality—particularly strikeout rates and earned-run averages against opposing lineups—materially influences game outcomes and can shift implied probabilities by 5–10 percentage points. Weather conditions at the venue and any last-minute roster changes announced via official MLB channels warrant attention. The settlement window's extension to 20 June accounts for rain delays or rescheduling; any cancellation without a make-up fixture would trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk exposure for positions held through that date.

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

BTC Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on BTC Prediction?

Zero. BTC Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.