Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Atlanta Braves are scheduled to host the Miami Marlins in a regular-season MLB game, with the market set to resolve on the official result. The crowd-implied 33% YES price is well below a coin flip, which fits an underdog framing for Miami rather than a neutral game state. In similar head-to-head spots this week, the market has moved on game-specific pitching and recent run production rather than season-long records alone: one preview had Atlanta around a 59% win probability with an 8.5 total, while another noted the total opened at 7.5 after Atlanta’s 9-1 win on Wednesday, showing how quickly the board has adjusted to one-sided scores.

For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, starting pitchers, and whether the game stays on schedule, since postponement keeps the contract open until completion. MLB day-to-day roster news can matter more than broader form when the price is this low, especially if a late scratch changes the pitching edge or rest pattern. On-chain settlement is straightforward: the contract resolves in USDC based on the final official result, so there is no equity-style exposure, only event risk. In wider markets, BTC and ETH swings can affect liquidity and risk appetite on prediction venues, but they do not change the baseball outcome; any influence is indirect through trading flow rather than settlement mechanics.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — are listed with their platform attributes, because they operate off-chain and a 1:1 comparison of contract mechanics isn't possible.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.