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LoL: Team WE vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

On-chain snapshot for "LoL: Team WE vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" — live Polygon order book, USDC settlement, platform comparison.

Game 1 Winner 100% First Blood in Game 1? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? 100% Volume: $974K Liquidity: $1.3M Closes: 14 Aug 2026
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LoL: Team WE vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
First Blood in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?100%
O/U 2.5 Games62%
Match Winner59%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?53%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 57.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?50%
Game 2 Winner39%
Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)39%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?35%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to lol: team we vs top esports (bo3) - lpl group ascend. This market refers to the LoL match between Team WE and Top Esports in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 14 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win the m…

Methodology

This page reads LoL: Team WE vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What are crypto prediction markets?
Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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