Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.5M
- 24h volume
- $1.5M
- Liquidity
- $880K
- Open interest
- $1.1M
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (44)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Weibo Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50
Wikipedia Context
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Gumbel distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the Gumbel distribution is used to model the distribution of the maximum of a number of samples of various distributions.
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LOL (web series)
LOL is a web series exploring teen relationships, drug use and social networks. It premiered on Blip on 29 November 2008. There are 20 webisodes in total, ranging between 2 and 5 minutes in length with the last webisode being 10 minutes long. The series was self-funded, with initial help in kind from a local production company. It was shot on a Red One digit
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Bobby LoweRobert Lincoln Lowe, nicknamed "Link", was an American Major League Baseball (MLB) player, coach, and scout. He played for the Boston Beaneaters (1890–1901), Chicago Cubs (1902–1903), Pittsburgh Pirates (1904), and Detroit Tigers (1904–1907). Lowe was the first player in Major League history to hit four home runs in a game, a feat which he accomplished in Ma
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Bob Lowes
Robert Lowes is a Canadian ice hockey executive, and former ice hockey coach. He has worked as the assistant director of player personnel for the Vegas Golden Knights since 2016. Lowes led the Nipawin Hawks to the 1990 ANAVET Cup championship, before being a head coach in the Western Hockey League (WHL) for 12 seasons with the Brandon Wheat Kings, and the Re
Methodology
Methodologically this overview focuses on on-chain pricing: Polymarket's live mid comes from the Polygon conditional-token order book and settles automatically in USDC. The other three venues — Kalshi, Betfair, Manifold — sit alongside as off-chain reference points so you can see how the contract translates across regulatory and settlement regimes.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.
Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.
FAQ
- What are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto prediction markets are on-chain smart contracts where you buy YES or NO shares on a future crypto event (e.g. "BTC above $100k by year-end"). The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
- USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
- What does a transaction cost on Polygon?
- Polygon gas is typically under $0.01 per transaction. A full trade cycle (Approve + Order + Fill) totals around $0.03 — compared to $5-50 on Ethereum mainnet.
- How does UMA secure the resolution?
- The UMA Optimistic Oracle uses a bond system: a proposer posts a bond, a two-hour challenge window opens. On dispute the losing side forfeits the bond — financial incentive for honest resolution.
- How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
- Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
Trade LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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