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LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

"LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — on-chain market odds, USDC settlement in seconds.

Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) 85% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? 71% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5? 66% Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) 61% Volume: $148K Liquidity: $634K Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via BTC Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)85%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?71%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5?66%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)61%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon53%
Odd/Even Total Kills53%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?49%
First Blood in Game 5?49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
First Blood in Game 1?43%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors42%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors41%
O/U 3.5 Games40%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?38%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?38%
Game 4 Winner36%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?36%
First Blood in Game 4?36%
First Blood in Game 3?27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
Any Player Penta Kill27%
First Blood in Game 2?26%
Game 2 Winner17%
Game 3 Winner17%
Game 1 Winner16%
Any Player Quadra Kill14%
O/U 4.5 Games13%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor12%
Match Winner7%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors6%
Any Player Penta Kill5%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 85% YES probability for LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Secret Whales and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 11:00PM ET. This market…

Methodology

This page reads LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs on-chain. Polymarket's quote comes directly from the Polygon order book — the only comparable venue with on-chain settlement. Kalshi (USD, off-chain), Betfair (GBP/EUR, off-chain) and Manifold (play-money) are listed alongside for venue context. Every CTA routes to BTC Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, a two-hour dispute window opens, then the smart contract lifts winning conditional tokens to 1 USDC and sends payments to holders' wallets automatically. No withdrawal fees beyond Polygon gas.

Off-chain venues (Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets) settle in local fiat through bank-side clearing — faster than SWIFT, slower than on-chain. Manifold pays no real cash.

FAQ

Why USDC and not ETH or USDT?
USDC is the Polygon standard — audited reserves (Circle, monthly attestation), deepest order book, low gas costs. ETH volatility would distort probability quotes; USDT has thinner Polygon liquidity than USDC.
Can I use Bitcoin directly?
No, Polymarket operates exclusively in USDC on Polygon. You can bridge BTC to USDC via an exchange or bridge service and deposit on Polygon — typically 10-30 minutes processing time.
How volatile are crypto prediction markets?
Crypto markets react to spot prices — a 5% BTC move typically shifts a "BTC above X by date" market 10-20%. Polymarket crypto market liquidity is usually six-figure USD, sufficient for active trading.
Which crypto markets exist on Polymarket?
Currently active markets include BTC/ETH/SOL price targets, halving dates, ETF approvals, hard-fork outcomes and Layer-2 TVL thresholds. The list updates weekly; biggest volume sits on BTC and ETH price forecasts.
Are crypto prediction markets taxable in the US?
In the US, prediction market gains are typically treated as ordinary income or short-term capital gains depending on holding period. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation — we cannot provide tax advice.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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